Prognostication

So Edwards, who I liked because of his union position and his potential to have a good working relationship with Congress, is out of the race. I think Obama has a sincere desire to do good things for the middle class but might try to do too much at once and get off on the wrong foot with Congress, and Clinton has the machinery to get things running smoothly, although she's likely to show the same bias to the connected and well-to-do that was a hallmark of her husband's administration. I'm leaning towards Obama, but would put my money on Clinton if I were a betting man.

Giuliani has imploded, Romney is staying just this side of competent, and McCain is on an upswing. Huckabee is not going much farther, and most likely won't survive Super Tuesday. Maybe he'll stay in the race for the sole purpose of winning some delegates that he can pledge to his favorite. Two scenarios scare me. McCain getting nominated is frightening because I know there are Democrats that will vote for him. Romney is a little less scary because I don't think he'll hold his own in the general election, but if he does, and somehow gets elected president, he will probably go down in history as the next Herbert Hoover. That is, if Romney is elected, his plans for the economy will probably just exacerbate the problem.

The possibility that either party might actually have to go all the way to the convention to select a nominee is getting slimmer. I, for one, would find that fascinating. It's something no one in my generation can even recall. Sitting in front of the television until all hours, on a hot summer night, waiting for the 137th ballot. Hearing the roll call of the states' delegations as they declare for one or another candidate. Maybe a dark horse? Did somebody say "Al Gore?" The rumor mills and the smoke-filled back rooms. "I heard Mayor Bloomberg was on a train from NYC to St. Paul." As bad as it is for "democracy," the history buff in me gets a chill just thinking about it.

Anyway, it's not likely to happen. After next Tuesday, I'm thinking it will be McCain versus Clinton. A long, bitter and dirty general campaign. A late night/early morning wait for returns. Some surprises (McCain gets Michigan and Ohio, but Clinton actually pulls some of the Solid South back to the Democratic Party). Then, in all likelihood, a one-term presidency for whoever wins. George Bush has made such a mess of things that Solomon himself couldn't straighten it out in four years, and whoever "wins" this election is going to pay for that.